Space Weather Modeling of the Solar Terrestrial Connection Event in December 2006: From the Sun to Interplanetary Space

K. Shibata1, K. Kusano2, D. Shiota2, S. Inoue2, E. Asano1, T. Matsumoto1, R. Kataoka3, T. Miyoshi5, T. Ogino4, and the Space Weather Modeling Team

1Kwasan and Hida Observatories, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
2The Earth Simulator Center, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
3RIKEN (The Institute of Physics and Chemical Research), Japan
4Solar Terrestrial Environmental Laboratory, Nagoya University, Japan
5Hiroshima University, Japan

Space weather events are complex phenomena, in which different physical processes mutually interact. Therefore, it is an important task to develop the integrated numerical model to understand not only the mechanism of each elementary process in solar terrestrial connection system but also the system dynamics of space weather event. Based on this motive, we have been developing a new type of space weather modeling framework. Our model is constituted of the four different sub-models, which are interlocked each other. Each model can simulate the onset of solar flare, the formation of coronal mass ejection (CME), the propagation of interplanetary CME (ICME), and the geomagnetic impact, respectively. As the first trial, we have applied the new model to the space weather event caused by the X-class flare occurred on December 13, 2006. First, we performed the so-called ’data-driven’ three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the solar flare eruption using the nonlinear force-free magnetic field of active region NOAA 10930, which was reconstructed from the vector magnetogram observed by Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) aboard Hinode. Second, using the results of this flare simulation as the boundary condition of the global corona model, the formation of CME was investigated. Finally, the result of the global corona model will be transmitted to the interplanetary model, which may simulate the propagation of ICME. On the basis of the simulation results, the operability of numerical prediction of space weather will be discussed.

This work was supported by the Grant-in-Aid for Creative Scientific Research ’The Basic Study of Space Weather Prediction’ (17GS0208, Head Investigator: K. Shibata) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan.