On the Modeling and Prediction of the May 13 2005 CME

Hong Xie^1,2, O.C. St.Cyr², N. Gopalswamy², Q. Hu³

¹Catholic University of America, Washington DC, USA
²NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA
³Unversity of California, Riverside, USA

The May 13 2005 CME is a nice fast halo event, which was seen in LASCO/C3 as a bright (almost symmetric) halo. The event was associated with a M8.0 X-ray flare at N12E11 (AR 10759). EIT 195 images showed a typical sigmoid-to-arcade structure. The event was well observed by both radio (Wind/WAVES) and in-situ observations from 1 AU (ACE, Wind). The WAVES observed a nice Sun-Earth event (5000-40 kHz) and spacecraft at L1 observed a nice magnetic cloud (MC) structure. In this work, we study the propagation of the CME (and its driven shock) using numerical simulation (ENLIL+cone model) and empirical techniques (Type II burst method (e.g., Cremades, et al., 2007) and empirical shock arrival (ESA) model (Gopalswamy et al., 2005)). We also model the flux rope structure by fitting a flux rope model (Krall, et al., 2005) to CME LASCO image and MC in-situ data, we then compare how the flux rope orientation matches among solar surface (EIT), CME (LASCO), and MC (in situ) to explore the possibility of predicting B_z component of the ICME (MC) at 1 AU.